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The War in Ukraine: Which Countries Think It Will End in 2025?
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February 2025 marks three years since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, escalating the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. At least 10,000 civilians, including more than 560 children, have been killed, and over 18,500 have been injured since the invasion began.
This graphic presents the results of a survey conducted by Ipsos, which asked people in different countries whether they believe the conflict in Ukraine will end in 2025.
Methodology
Ipsos surveyed 33 countries between Friday, October 25, and Friday, November 8, 2024. The survey included 23,721 adults aged 18 and older.
Most Are Pessimistic About Ukraine
The majority of respondents and countries chose “Unlikely”, meaning that they do not believe the war will end in 2025.
| Country | Likely (%) | Unsure (%) | Unlikely (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | 59 | 12 | 29 |
| 🇮🇩 Indonesia | 56 | 12 | 32 |
| 🇮🇳 India | 51 | 14 | 35 |
| 🇲🇾 Malaysia | 48 | 20 | 32 |
| 🇵🇭 Philippines | 47 | 15 | 38 |
| 🇹🇭 Thailand | 36 | 17 | 47 |
| 🇹🇷 Türkiye | 34 | 11 | 55 |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | 30 | 24 | 46 |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | 29 | 19 | 52 |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | 29 | 19 | 52 |
| 🇮🇪 Ireland | 27 | 15 | 58 |
| 🇵🇪 Peru | 26 | 28 | 46 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 26 | 24 | 50 |
| 🇵🇱 Poland | 26 | 17 | 57 |
| 🇨🇱 Chile | 26 | 25 | 49 |
| 🇺🇸 United States | 26 | 22 | 52 |
| 🇸🇬 Singapore | 25 | 20 | 55 |
| 🇷🇴 Romania | 24 | 17 | 59 |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 23 | 22 | 55 |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 23 | 21 | 56 |
| 🇭🇺 Hungary | 23 | 25 | 52 |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | 22 | 13 | 65 |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 22 | 14 | 64 |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia | 21 | 28 | 51 |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | 19 | 22 | 59 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 19 | 35 | 46 |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 17 | 14 | 69 |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 17 | 18 | 65 |
| 🇬🇧 Great Britain | 15 | 17 | 68 |
| 🇫🇷 France | 15 | 18 | 67 |
People in Belgium and the Netherlands are the most pessimistic about the war’s resolution.
Meanwhile, China and Indonesia have the highest share of respondents who believe the war will end this year.
In the United States, 52% said it is unlikely the war will end this year, while 26% believe in a resolution, and 22% remain unsure. President-elect Donald Trump has stated during his campaign that he would take the necessary steps to restore peace and limit the cost of U.S. involvement in foreign wars.
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