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Long before the United States presidential election declared that Republican Donald J Trump had emerged victorious against Democrat Kamala Harris, Beijing‘s political corridors were brainstorming how to manage China’s ties with the US. Now as Trump begins his second presidency, it is all but certain that he will turn up the heat on China.
During his first term as US president (2017-2021), Trump bluntly expressed his views on the true nature of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its threat to America’s economic and political way of life. He advocated how a blind eye can no longer be turned to the reality of an increasingly assertive China.
First Trump Term on China Risks
In early 2020, President Trump asked four senior national security officials in his administration to explain and disseminate the Trump administration’s US policy on China to the American people. While they may not be in his second administration, what they had to say resonates still. They are Robert C O’Brien, Christopher Wray, William Barr, and Michael Pompeo.
Trump’s objectives went far beyond simply talking about the “China threat.” It was more about educating the American masses on the greater threat the CCP posed to their livelihoods, businesses, freedoms, and values. In fact, Trump was making a very significant distinction here. According to the US president, the competition Washington faced was not China versus the United States. It was the CCP, with its Marxist-Leninist and mercantilist vision for the world versus freedom, rights, and liberty.
Subsequently, FBI Director Wray followed up with an exposé of the pervasiveness of the PRC’s espionage and intellectual property theft from the US government, companies, and partners. He called such theft one of the “largest transfers of wealth in human history.”
Trump noted the “plain facts [of what China did] cannot be overlooked or swept aside.” Perhaps the most incisive declaration by Trump was during his address to the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly in September 2020. Censuring China, Trump stated: “We have waged a fierce battle against the invisible enemy — the China virus — which has claimed countless lives in 188 countries.” Then he added: “…We must hold accountable the nation which unleashed this plague onto the world: China.”
Responding to the Challenges Ahead
The propaganda of the CCP’s global strategy and the whole-of-government approach that the CCP is employing to advance its influence in the US, using political, economic, military, and propaganda tools was discussed by then Vice President Mike Pence in his 2018 address to the Hudson Institute. Pence stated “To put it bluntly, President Trump’s leadership is working… China wants a different American president.”
Beijing is discernibly uncomfortable with open discussions about the CCP’s objectives, planning, and strategy. Incidentally, now that Trump is back in the White House, Beijing understands fully well that this central debate about its authoritarian model will become a visibly resisted focal point in Washington once again. Notably, Trump effectively launched a trade war with China in his first term and has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on imports from China in his second tenure.
Views from Chinese Academia
Chinese academics are already cagey regarding the likelihood of the US enhancing its “anti-China stance” as Trump returns as president. The sanctions stick and strategic suppression of China is a gaping possibility. It contains vital protections for advanced technologies, rising tariffs, and perhaps a renewed take on the US policy on Taiwan.
Xin Qiang is a scholar at the Center for American Studies, Fudan University. According to Xin, Trump’s China policy in his second term “will be tougher, extremer, more unpredictable and more confrontational.”
As per Wang Yong at the Peking University’s School of International Studies, Trump’s pick for US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio may “do everything in his power to suppress and curb China’s development.” Rubio’s selection as Washington’s top diplomat signals more confrontation. His selection puts a China-sanctioned US official in charge of Washington’s foreign relations.
In another assessment, Wang Dong at Peking University thinks China-US relations under “Trump 2.0” might increasingly slip into a “new Cold War.” Wang predicts that “Trump 2.0” will likely resume the tariff war against China, therefore seriously disrupting trade and economic relations.
First Steps
The incoming president has already proposed revoking China’s Most-Favored-Nation trade status and phasing out all imports of essential goods from China in four years. Therefore, Beijing is bracing for some tough years ahead.
China’s economy is deteriorating and the looming probability of stringent tariffs could further retard its economic graph, despite Beijing’s huge cash reserves. It appears that China, America’s key challenger, is bracing for the challenge about to come from Washington.
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Author: Dr Monika Chansoria
Follow Dr Chansoria’s column “All Politics is Global” on JAPAN Forward, and X (formerly Twitter). The views expressed here are those of the author and do not reflect the views of any organization with which she is affiliated.