Europe Prepared for Trump 2.0. But Will It Be Enough?

When U.S. President-elect Donald Trump unexpectedly won his first term in 2016, it stunned European officials and sent them scrambling to puzzle out the implications for transatlantic ties. 

Not this time. 

When U.S. President-elect Donald Trump unexpectedly won his first term in 2016, it stunned European officials and sent them scrambling to puzzle out the implications for transatlantic ties. 

Not this time. 

For months, European governments have been working behind the scenes on contingency plans to increase the continent’s self-sufficiency and shield military aid to Ukraine from the headwinds of American politics. 

The mood since last night has been one of resignation and preparation. “This will probably mean that Europe finally realizes that it has to start taking care of itself,” said a European official who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the results. “The world’s oldest teenager will finally have to move out,” the official said. 

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski was circumspect in his remarks on the election. “The American people have voted, and we respect their decision,” he said this morning, speaking to the press. “Europe urgently needs to take more responsibility for its security.”

The question is whether these preparations will be enough. Another European official noted that the continent was better prepared “psychologically,” but questioned the substance of actual changes. “It’s not like Europe has made a huge leap in provisioning for its own defense in the meantime,” the official said. 

First on the list of concerns in Europe is what Trump’s victory could mean for the war in Ukraine, which he has promised to resolve in 24 hours. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was quick to congratulate Trump, on whom he will soon rely for the majority of his military aid. 

Trump’s eschewing of diplomatic norms and his personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin have long stoked anxiety that he may force Ukraine into an unfavorable deal for the sake of ending the war. But some see cause for hope in the businessman-turned-president’s transactional approach to global affairs. 

“Overall I am cautiously optimistic,” said Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the foreign affairs committee in the Ukrainian parliament. “In my opinion, from now on the issue of Ukraine becomes an issue of his personal success as a politician. He doesn’t want his legacy to be compared with the American withdrawal from Afghanistan.”