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Granted a reprieve after being cast aside, the recent data shows that Bryce Young is closing the gap on C.J. Stroud ever so slightly. That looked like a long shot about 13 weeks ago.
A year ago, Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud sat at complete opposite ends of the young quarterback spectrum.
Stroud looked like the next great quarterback of his generation, while Young looked like a first-round bust. As Stroud led the Houston Texans to an AFC South title and eventually a playoff win, Young couldn’t buy a victory.
And as Stroud went on to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, Young finished with almost as many touchdowns (11) as interceptions (10) and about half as many passing yards as Stroud.
This trend looked to continue for the pair midway through the 2024 season. Stroud’s numbers aren’t as good as his rookie season, but the Texans have rattled off wins and look to repeat as AFC South champions. Young, meanwhile, was benched after Week 2 following two bad losses in which he failed to throw a touchdown pass.
Something has changed over the past six weeks, though. Stroud hasn’t looked as good as he’s usually been since Week 8, and the Texans are 2-3 over their past six games and eked out a three-point win over the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13.
Young and the Panthers also went 2-3 over that span, but Young’s look much improved and lost those games – including an overtime heartbreaker – by a combined 12 points. And all of those games were against playoff teams, including the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
As the first two picks of the 2024 NFL Draft, Young and Stroud will be intrinsically linked forever. For now, Stroud has the advantage given his stats, wins and accolades.
And while Stroud’s tape will keep him ahead of Young, the recent data shows the gap between the two is tightening ever so slightly.
Stroud’s numbers are still slightly better, at least from an advanced metrics perspective. But it’s hard to discount Young’s development from perceived bust to a QB who has led six potentially game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime.
While this doesn’t exempt the Panthers from trading away a haul that included DJ Moore and the pick that eventually became Caleb Williams to take Young over Stroud, it at least paints a picture of a quarterback who might not be the disappointment he was perceived to be early in his career. It also shows that Stroud, while an exciting young quarterback, is just that – a young quarterback still learning the nuances of the NFL.
The key thing to understand here is that while Stroud hasn’t looked good during his sophomore season, Young has still looked worse. On the season, Stroud ranks 31st in completion rate, 27th in open target rate, 21st in well-thrown rate and 21st in pickable pass rate among quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts.
Young ranks 36th, 34th, 36th and 23rd in the same categories, respectively.
The difference is levels of improvement. Where Stroud has regressed by some metrics relative to his rookie season, Young has shown improvement.
This phenomenon isn’t happening in a vacuum, either. There are differences in Young’s and Stroud’s second seasons in the NFL: coaching, supporting casts and schedule.
Coaching and Offensive Scheme
DeMeco Ryans’ coaching tree was the talk of the town during the 2024 offseason. Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik was a head coaching candidate and quarterbacks coach Jerrod Johnson was being interviewed for an OC role. Both returned to Houston hoping to replicate the success of 2023 but have so far failed to improve.
Houston’s offensive success rate has dropped 2.4% this season and from 23rd in 2023 to 32nd in 2024. The team’s run success rate ranks 32nd for the second consecutive season and the pass success rate dropped by almost 10% from 10th in 2023 to 25th this season.
Defenses have quickly picked up the staleness of Slowik’s offense this year, and Stroud’s efficiency has suffered as a result.
Stroud was surgical in throws to the middle of the field or to the hash marks in 2023, with elite completion and well-thrown rates. But while his well-thrown percentage has remained solid in 2024, his completion percentage has plummeted. So Stroud hasn’t been throwing any worse, defenders have just been able to pick up on the nuances of the offensive scheme easier.
And it certainly hasn’t helped that Houston pass catchers’ open percentage has fallen from 80.8% (eighth in the NFL) in last season to 75.4% (23rd) this season.
This isn’t all on coaching, as other the contributing factors mentioned above certainly played a role. But the staleness of Slowik’s offense despite the additions of Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs as well as the development of Nico Collins (who all, admittedly, has dealt with multi-week injuries all year) played major roles in the Texan’s offensive decline.
Conversely, the Panthers offense looks very different with Dave Canales at the controls. Canales has had success revitalizing the careers of both Baker Mayfield with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Geno Smith with the Seattle Seahawks, so it makes sense he’s been able to work a little magic with Young.
One of the biggest changes is Young’s ability to push the ball downfield in the Canales offense. Young’s air yards increased from 7.57 in 2023 to 8.47 this year, and he went from ranking 28th among quarterbacks with at least 150 passing attempts in 2023 to 12th this year.
Carolina still ranks near the bottom of the NFL in offensive, run and pass success rates – 32nd, 22nd and 31st, respectively – but the actual percentages have all marginally increased. These minute improvements show up in games and have been evident in the Panthers’ three recent close losses.
Supporting Casts
A great quarterback can lift everyone up, but neither have had much to work with in 2024.
Stroud has especially been snake-bitten by his own team. Houston’s severely depleted offensive line has been a sieve all season. While the line’s pressure-allowed rate has improved slightly, Stroud has already been sacked more than he was all of last season and the second most in the league behind only the aforementioned Caleb Williams of the Chicago Bears.
Carolina, meanwhile, invested heavily in the offensive line this year with big-money additions Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis after the team retained tackle Taylor Moton and drafted Ikem Ekwonu in 2022. This unit ranks 17th in pressure-allowed rate and fifth in sack-allowed rate, which has made Young one of the least-sacked quarterbacks in the NFL this season.
Both teams’ poor rushing stats are well known, but the quarterbacks have also endured a lack of support from their wide receivers. Houston ranks 24th and Carolina ranks 22nd in wide receiver win rate, which is emblematic to Stroud’s and Young’s struggles despite solid advanced metrics like well-thrown percentage and catchable ball rate.
When receivers aren’t winning on their routes or when targeted, the quarterback suffers the consequences. Young understands this more than most, as he was a dropped Xavier Legette pass away from upsetting the Eagles in Week 14.
The Schedule
Stroud is partially a victim of his own success in 2024. Because of all the winning the Texans did in 2023, he is playing a first-place schedule this year which includes games against other division winners like the Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens.
Houston also got unlucky drawing the NFC North, which has been exceptionally good this season with the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers all looking like playoff teams, and the AFC East with the Buffalo Bills. The Texans also fell to the lowly New York Jets on Halloween.
Carolina once again played the last-place schedule in a weaker division. While that hasn’t equated to wins, it’s helped create more palatable situations for Young to develop. And even in matchups against good teams, Young proved capable of going toe-to-toe with playoff defenses.
The Texans have faced seven teams with a defense ranked in the top 10 in points or yards allowed – or both – and lost to five of them. The Panthers, though, faced just five such teams and lost to all of them. And the two team’s final slate of games offers much of the same.
Houston takes on the Miami Dolphins, Chiefs, Ravens and Tennessee Titans – all teams that rank 10th or better in points or yards allowed – while the Panthers don’t face any that fit that criteria.
Moving Forward
None of this means that the Young versus Stroud debate should be completely reborn. Stroud remains the superior player and will likely remain so unless something drastically changes.
However, Young has looked like he has the tools to be a solid quarterback in the NFL over the past six weeks – as long as he continues to improve. And Stroud still possesses the mechanics to become a top player in the NFL – just not in Year 2.
There are nuances and adjustments needed to prevent his proverbial sophomore “slump” from becoming a pattern, and that starts with adapting to situations that change year over year like the aforementioned coaching-scheme staleness, unsupportive casts and schedule.
As for Young, he appears to have successfully moved the narrative from sure-fire first-round miss to something a bit less tangible. He still looks like a young quarterback trying to find his way, just not one who will be the reason his team losses.
There have been several recent examples of this from just five years ago when Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Josh Allen were picked first, third and seventh. Mayfield and Darnold flashed early before fizzling out, only to be reborn on new teams as quality quarterbacks. Allen, meanwhile, looked lost in his first two seasons and is now the MVP frontrunner.
Stroud and Young are then, perhaps, great examples of not judging a quarterback’s trajectory by his first 20 starts. Neither should be defined by their rookie seasons, especially given how their second years have gone. And why Stroud remains the better overall player, the two aren’t nearly so far apart as they had been entering 2024.
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