Corporate, conservative Merz poised to steer a floundering Germany toward the right

BERLIN (CN) — Out of Germany’s roiling political waters, Christian Democratic Union Chairman Friedrich Merz is surfacing with a strong lead going into February’s snap elections. The conservatives are expected to prevail, priming Merz to unseat Social Democrat Olaf Scholz as the nation’s leader.

Scholz’s coalition with the Greens and pro-business Free Democrats fractured in November, triggering the early election on Feb. 23. Talks to form a new government could last into April.

And though the legacy — and lingering challenges — from former CDU Chancellor Angela Merkel’s 16 year reign loom large over the country, Merz is unlikely to follow closely in his party-mate’s footsteps.

“Merz belongs far more to the right politically than Merkel,” Uwe Wagschal, political scientist at the University of Freiburg, told Courthouse News.

“Merkel was often quite flexible and voted for a number of left-leaning issues,” he continued, referring to her pragmatic approach. She adopted broadly popular policies even if they were at odds with her conservative base, such as legalizing gay marriage, shuttering Germany’s nuclear power plants, and establishing the country as a safe haven during the 2015 refugee crisis.

The Christian Democrats under Merz are drastically different than the party under Merkel’s tutelage, and the country he aspires to lead looks very different than when she left office in 2021.

“Merz is a lot more ideological,” said Wagschal.

Merz, a CDU member since 1972 who was first elected to the European Parliament in 1989, has long been a staple of the party’s conservative wing. He also has extensive experience in the private sector, stepping away from politics from 2009–2018 to work as a corporate lawyer and sit on the boards of some of Germany’s biggest companies.

His political comeback was initially halting. Merz lost his opening two bids for party chairman to candidates seen as cut from Merkel’s cloth, before finally winning control of the party — and resetting its course — in 2021.

In addition to business-friendly economic policy, proposed welfare cuts and demands to lower taxes, Merz is outspoken about immigration. He’s called for stronger border controls and increased deportations of foreigners. Merz was widely criticized for accusing Ukrainian war refugees of “welfare tourism” in 2022.

According to Carolin Rüger, a political scientist at the University of Würzburg focusing on the European Union, Merz’s proposed migration policy could put a strain on European relations. “He’s shown in his position on border controls that he would be prepared to play the national card by referencing ‘national emergencies,’ and at least strain the European legal framework,” Rüger told Courthouse News.

Partly aimed at winning over far-right Alternative for Germany voters, Merz’s caustic delivery has struck a chord even if it hasn’t slowed the far right’s growth — especially given the unpopularity of Scholz’s recently collapsed coalition, Germany’s worsening economic struggles and its underfunded infrastructure.

Wagschal said, “It’s not just at the federal level. If you go into the cities and states you can clearly see they’re running out of money. Investment into schools and other infrastructure is really difficult.”

Merz’s ability to right the economic ship and spur investment would hinge on his willingness to reform Germany’s constitutional debt limit — a shift he once categorically rejected but has recently softened toward. Germany introduced the debt brake under the CDU in 2009, and the party is split on the question of its reform.

Merz’s typically tight-fisted fiscal policy is expected to carry over to Germany’s European politics and could be a further source of strain.

“It can be assumed that a potential Chancellor Merz would emphasize fiscal discipline even more strongly,” said Rüger. “Brussels is currently sitting like a rabbit in front of a snake with regard to the German parliamentary elections. Landmark decisions are pending, such as on the multi-annual financial framework, or on how the billions for Europe’s security are to be raised.”

Germany’s economy is expected to shrink 0.1% this year, the second consecutive year of contraction, and rebound modestly with 0.7% next year. Germany faces a shortage of skilled labor, tangled bureaucracy and high energy prices, and efforts to address those issues were stalled by squabbling in Scholz’s coalition. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, along with Donald Trump’s ascendancy to the White House, create further challenges for the nation.

While Germany’s foreign policy will to some degree be shaped by other coalition members, assuming Merz wins, Rüger said that Merz will likely dictate the country’s stances. Ruger pointed to Scholz frequently overriding Green Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in the current coalition.

Polling shows Merz’s party with about 32% support. The far-right AfD comes in next with 18%, which Scholz’s party garners about 16%.

Despite Merz’s vigorous critiques of Scholz’s government, it will be very difficult for him to avoid governing without either the Greens or Social Democrats. Merz has ruled out a partnership with the far right. With a number of smaller parties, including frequent CDU coalition partner Liberal Democrats potentially failing to clear the 5% hurdle required to enter parliament, his options will be limited.

Whoever he rules with, if Merz does win it will signal a significant change from 16 years of Merkel and four of Scholz’s center-left coalition. Despite the clear change in course, electing a conservative leader is in many ways a return to the postwar standard, which has been dominated by the CDU.

“He sticks a bit more to the old tradition of Germany,” said Wagschal.

German traditional conservatism looks set for a comeback, but Merz will be tasked with making it succeed in a new, and daunting, context of crisis.

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