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Politicians in Ireland have made a habit of standing in their wellies examining the clean-up after a flood.
Who can forget the splash made in the newspapers when then tánaiste Joan Burton and her Labour colleague and Minister of State Ann Phelan, a Carlow-Kilkenny TD, were plunged into the icy waters of the river Nore in December 2015.
The pair were visiting Thomastown, Co Kilkenny, where locals were reeling from the impact of Storm Frank, when their two-seat canoe titled and they ended up getting to observe the floodwaters more closely than they had anticipated.
The mortification may have worn off for the politicians, but we are still dealing with the effects of climate change.
With the planet heating up, are we headed for more severe storms into the future?
The answer to that is far from simple.
Storm Darwin struck Ireland on Darwin Day in February 2014, causing significant devastation and widespread disruption.
It served as a turning point, prompting the introduction of the storm-naming system.
This began with Storm Abigail in November 2015, and since then, Ireland has witnessed an increasing number of named storms — a trend unlikely to slow down.
For Ireland, the most immediate and visible impact of climate change on storms is rainfall and flooding.
Slow-moving storms like Storm Babet demonstrate the growing risk of intense rainfall over short periods.
A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, and as a result, these rainstorms are becoming more intense and frequent, significantly increasing the risk of flash flooding.
The impact of climate change on storm wind strength is less clear.
According to a World Weather Attribution study, average wind speeds on stormy days have decreased slightly in recent decades and may continue to decline with warming.
Interestingly, many of Ireland’s most severe wind storms occurred in the 1980s and 1990s and the all-time record gust of 182 km/h was recorded at Foynes Airport in January 1945.
The storm season for Ireland and Britain officially begins on September 1, but recent years have seen an increase in August storms.
For example, Storm Ellen in August 2020 set new records for low pressure and wind speeds at Roches Point.
Similarly, Storms Antoni and Betty in August 2023 highlight how climate change may be extending the storm season into the summer months.
The jet stream, the high-altitude air current that influences Irish weather, plays a critical role in storm development.
Climate change is causing the jet stream to become “wavier”, which has profound impacts:
- More severe blocking weather patterns, leading to heatwaves or droughts;
- Prolonged periods of heavy rain and flooding caused by stalled low-pressure systems.
These changes are also complicating storm forecasts.
Rapidly developing storms, like Storm Darragh, challenge current weather models.
Initially forecast as a weak low-pressure system south of Ireland on Tuesday, Darragh rapidly intensified and tracked north, leaving 400,000 premises without power by Friday night.
Such unpredictability underscores the urgent need for improved forecasting systems and communication of changing weather warnings as storms quickly approach and change.
Another looming concern is the possible slowdown or shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), often referred to as the Gulf Stream.
A weakened AMOC could cool Ireland’s climate while contributing to sea-level rise.
However, its impact on storms remains uncertain; paradoxically, an AMOC shutdown could reduce storm activity in Ireland.
While hurricanes were traditionally a concern for the US, events like Hurricane Ophelia (2017) have shown their potential to impact Ireland.
Warming seas act as “rocket fuel” for hurricanes, enabling them to form further north and survive longer.
As a result, Ireland faces an increasing risk of ex-hurricane systems bringing powerful winds and torrential rain.
The impacts of climate change on Ireland’s storms are complex and multifaceted, but one outcome is clear: We face an increased risk of flooding. As a nation, we must move from reactive cleanup efforts to proactive solutions.
Key measures include:
- Completing a comprehensive flood warning system;
- Investing in flood defences to protect vulnerable communities;
- Ensuring clear and timely communication of flood risk to the public.
We must all play our part in reducing emissions and leading the transition toward renewable energy, moving decisively away from fossil fuels.
As a nation, we have overcome severe weather before and will continue to do so.
However, preparation is key.
Our politicians need to forget about the photo ops standing in floodwaters promising millions for a clean-up and instead focus on genuine investment in prevention and resilience.
Adaptation must become a central priority in both our national conversation and our long-term investments.