Inside the Canucks’ numbers: Here’s how much they miss Quinn Hughes

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No team can survive without their best player for long. That’s hardly a shocking revelation.

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But here we are, looking at the Vancouver Canucks staring into the void because they are in exactly that situation.

Quinn Hughes is hurt. He’s going to be back, but not for a while. (How long is a while? Rick Tocchet said “week to week” on Sunday … so whatever that means.)

The ways to explain how great Quinn Hughes is, how important he is to the Canucks’ lineup, are many.

Here are a few:

16

There’s a 16-point spread between how the Canucks have performed with Hughes on the ice vs. when he’s not.

When Hughes has been on the ice this season, the Canucks have taken 58 per cent of the total shot attempts.

When he’s not playing, the Canucks have taken just 42 per cent of shot attempts.

That’s a substantial and troubling drop. It’s no surprise that with Hughes out of the lineup, the Canucks look dismal.

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3

Among the NHL’s top 20 players in shot-attempt-for percentage who have played at least 300 minutes of five-on-five ice time this season, there are just three players who do not play for the Carolina Hurricanes or Edmonton Oilers, the NHL’s two most dominant puck-possession teams.

Those three are Quinn Hughes, Florida’s Sasha Barkov and Buffalo’s Rasmus Dahlin.

These are the best of the best and it’s no surprise that Hughes is one of them.

75

In the two games that Hughes missed before Thursday’s game in Seattle, the Canucks generated just 75 shot attempts at five-on-five.

That’s brutal.

No team is going to survive that.

Is it because the Canucks can’t move the puck up the ice? With Hughes out of the lineup on top of Filip Hronek — he’s still out for weeks — the Canucks’ best puck-moving defenceman is Erik Brännström, and his hold on a spot in the lineup is tenuous at best. How tenuous? Despite his puck skills, he looked likely to be scratched in favour of Guillaume Brisebois on Thursday.

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With Brännström out of the lineup, on top of Hughes and Hronek, does that leave Noah Juulsen as the Canucks’ best puck mover?

It’s either him or Tyler Myers.

Either way … yikes.

47

According to the NHL’s Edge data tracking, Hughes has spent 47 per cent of his ice time in the offensive zone, putting him in the 97th percentile in the league.

That tracks with what we know about shot-attempt rates — that the more you shoot the puck, the more zone time you have.

Yes, Hughes is one of the NHL’s most dominant forces.

Nov. 23

According to MoneyPuck.com, the Canucks’ 10-game rolling average for expected goals hasn’t been positive since late November.

Expected goals is a metric that measures the probability of a particular shot becoming a goal. It’s a useful way to understand how teams are playing in a particular game.

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And the fact the Canucks are struggling to control the quality of shots even with Hughes in the lineup is very concerning.

Now, it should not go unnoticed that this slump coincided with Miller going on leave and then Hronek injuring his shoulder.

The Canucks aren’t at full strength, and that matters. But it’s Hughes who has been keeping their heads at least near the surface.

The longer Hughes is out, the more the Canucks are going to struggle, and the more the Pettersson/Miller sideshow will be in the spotlight. In other words, if they find a way to win more, the chatter will subside.

Is Hughes coming back the real answer to ending all the noise about a fractious dressing room? If they start winning, yes.

But to start winning, do they have to be happy first? Is that even possible anymore, Hughes or not?

pjohnston@postmedia.com

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