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Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at Israeli troops remaining in southern Lebanon, Belarus’s upcoming election, and violent clashes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Another 30 Days
The Israeli security cabinet authorized the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) late Thursday to remain in some areas of southern Lebanon past the 60-day withdrawal deadline set to expire on Sunday. Under the terms of the Israel-Hezbollah cease-fire agreement approved last November, both sides must fully remove all of their troops from the region by Jan. 26 to reinstate the borders laid out in United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701.
Israel says that it must remain in the occupied territory because the Lebanese military has failed to prevent Hezbollah from operating there. “There is movement, but it is not moving fast enough,” Israeli government spokesperson David Mencer said on Thursday.
According to Andrea Tenenti, the spokesperson for the U.N. peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, Israel still occupies around 70 percent of the territory that it captured after its Oct. 1, 2024, incursion into the country. It is unclear how long the Israeli presence may continue, but one Israeli official told CNN that the government wants its forces to remain in Lebanon for at least another 30 days.
“It is imperative to prioritize the security of northern residents and ensure that the threat to northern communities does not reemerge,” Israeli parliamentarian Benny Gantz wrote on X on Friday, referring to past Hezbollah attacks on Israeli towns near the border. “Otherwise, we have learned nothing from Oct. 7.”
Hezbollah warned Israel on Thursday that if its forces remain in Lebanon, then the group would consider Israel’s actions to be “a blatant violation of the agreement, an attack on Lebanese sovereignty, and the beginning of a new chapter of occupation.” The militant group has called on international monitors, including the United States and France, to prevent Israel from prolonging its presence there.
Under the November cease-fire deal, only the Lebanese military and U.N. peacekeepers can remain in southern Lebanon after the 60-day deadline expires.
Israeli Ambassador to the United States Michael Herzog said that Israel was in close talks with the Trump administration and was seeking U.S. approval to delay its withdrawal. On Friday, the White House said that a “short, temporary ceasefire extension is urgently needed” in Lebanon and that it was working with allies to finalize an extension.
“President [Donald] Trump is committed to ensuring Israeli citizens can safely return to their homes in northern Israel, while also supporting President [Joseph] Aoun and the new Lebanese government,” National Security Council spokesperson Brian Hughes told Al Arabiya English in an emailed statement. “We are pleased that the IDF has started the withdrawal from the central regions, and we continue to work closely with our regional partners to finalize the extension.”
Israel’s threat to the cease-fire deal is a test for Aoun. Upon taking office this month, ending a yearslong power vacuum in the country, Aoun vowed to centralize Lebanon’s weapons under the mandate of the state. Such a pledge expressed his desire to remove Hezbollah’s long-time grip on power, even as the militant group’s influence remains entrenched in Lebanese politics.
However, should fighting between Israel and Hezbollah restart, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has warned that Israeli attacks would not differentiate between Hezbollah and the Lebanese Armed Forces. Hezbollah forces have been steadily attacking Israel since Oct. 8, 2023, in solidarity with its fellow Iranian-backed proxy Hamas in Gaza.
Today’s Most Read
What We’re Following
A “sham” vote. Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko will head to the ballot box on Sunday to take part in a presidential election that vote monitors have already said has a forgone conclusion. Despite technically being up against four other candidates, the pro-Russia autocrat is expected to win a seventh five-year term.
“It’s a sham,” exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said. “This is a military-style operation, a performance staged by the regime to hold on to power.”
What is yet to be determined, however, is the level of opposition activity that could erupt in response to the vote. During the last presidential election in 2020, allegations of electoral fraud sparked months of mass protests, with hundreds of thousands of Belarusians taking part. In response, government authorities arrested more than 35,000 people, some of whom were reportedly tortured while in custody.
State-sponsored crackdowns against political dissidents have worsened since then, driving Lukashenko closer to Russian President Vladimir Putin and further from the West.
Rebel fighting. Violent clashes between the Congolese army, M23 rebels, and U.N. peacekeepers escalated on Friday after the death of Maj. Gen. Peter Cirimwami Nkuba, the military governor of the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s North Kivu province. Nkuba was shot near the front lines on Thursday, though the circumstances surrounding his death remain unclear.
Rebel forces—which Congo, the United Nations, and the United States say are backed by Rwanda—have waged a yearslong insurgency against the Congolese army in eastern Congo; since the start of this year, the fighting has intensified, with the rebels capturing a slew of towns, including the vital trade hub Minova. On Friday, the Congo River Alliance, which includes the M23 group, said that it planned to take the provincial capital of Goma in the coming days.
Kigali denies that it backs M23, instead arguing that rebels are fighting for the rights of Congo’s Tutsis, the ethnic group targeted by extremists from Rwanda’s ethnic Hutu majority during the 1994 Rwandan genocide.
“This offensive has a devastating toll on the civilian population and heightened the risk of a broader regional war,” U.N. spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said on Thursday. According to the U.N. refugee agency, fighting this year has displaced at least 400,000 people.
Drone offensive. Ukrainian troops struck a Russian oil refinery and a microchip factory in the western Russian city of Ryazan during a massive overnight drone attack, Kyiv said on Friday. The assault reportedly ignited a fire that damaged key railway and refinery equipment. If confirmed, then the attack showcases Ukraine’s ability to strike targets deeper inside Russian territory.
The overnight drone attack, which consisted of 121 drones across 13 regions, is believed to be one of Kyiv’s biggest such operations since the Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022. The Russian Defense Ministry did not report any casualties and said that its forces had repelled the nighttime strikes.
Putin said on Friday that he is ready to begin peace talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, to be mediated by Trump. “We believe the current president’s statements about his readiness to work together,” Putin said of Trump. “We are always open to this and ready for negotiations.” However, he specified that one key complication remains: Zelensky signed a decree in October 2022 preventing him from conducting talks with the Russian president.
What in the World?
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres asked which country to renounce nuclear weapons?
A. North Korea
B. Pakistan
C.Iran
D. The United States
Odds and Ends
In a heated phone call with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen last week, Trump reportedly doubled down on his intention to purchase Greenland—despite Frederiksen reiterating that the resource-rich territory was not for sale. On Wednesday, Anders Vistisen, a Danish member of the European Parliament, tried a more forceful tactic. “Let me put it in words you might understand,” Vistisen said during a parliamentary session in Strasbourg, France. “Mr. Trump, fuck off.”
And the Answer Is…
C. Iran
U.S. officials believe that Iran has the means to produce enough material for a nuclear weapon in as little as one to two weeks, FP’s John Haltiwanger reports.
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